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9 Feb 2016
Massive USD/JPY Friday reversal by some 260 pips
USD/JPY has got the market on their toes with a brief show below the 115 handle as the bear's endurance takes the major on a continuation of overnight's sell-off. The greenback was shunned almost 2 full big figures by the time of Wall Street closing after it had tanked and recovered slightly at the close. The Fed's optimism has come under scrutiny and investors are not buying it.
The supply started from above117.20 and made fresh lows within the bearish H&S formation, hammering a dent into the downside and reaching levels not seen since November 2014. We have just broken that barrier on the way down further and below the 115 handle, marking a position into a possible new lower range. Fundamentally, keep an eye on the authorities in Japan. Japan Finance Minister Aso has already come out and said today that they will continue to monitor market and FX movements closely.
"The projected target for the pattern is located at 106, also the 38.2% retracement of the 2012-2015. Immediate support stands at 113.80/113.20, the 23.6% retracement and the lower boundary of the down sloping channel within which the pair has been evolving over the past months," explained Stéphanie Aymes, Head of Technical Analysis at Societe Generale in respect to the H&S formation.
USD/JPY levels
Technically, the risks to the downside below 115.50 have increased on this move, but as mentioned, closes below here are needed to confirm the possibility of a new lower range targeting 112.00 in the first instance. Beyond there, 110.20 and September highs may be a tough area of resistance guarding 17th Oct weekly lows of 106.24 and also the 38.2% retracement of the 2012-2015, as noted by Societe Generale.
The supply started from above117.20 and made fresh lows within the bearish H&S formation, hammering a dent into the downside and reaching levels not seen since November 2014. We have just broken that barrier on the way down further and below the 115 handle, marking a position into a possible new lower range. Fundamentally, keep an eye on the authorities in Japan. Japan Finance Minister Aso has already come out and said today that they will continue to monitor market and FX movements closely.
"The projected target for the pattern is located at 106, also the 38.2% retracement of the 2012-2015. Immediate support stands at 113.80/113.20, the 23.6% retracement and the lower boundary of the down sloping channel within which the pair has been evolving over the past months," explained Stéphanie Aymes, Head of Technical Analysis at Societe Generale in respect to the H&S formation.
USD/JPY levels
Technically, the risks to the downside below 115.50 have increased on this move, but as mentioned, closes below here are needed to confirm the possibility of a new lower range targeting 112.00 in the first instance. Beyond there, 110.20 and September highs may be a tough area of resistance guarding 17th Oct weekly lows of 106.24 and also the 38.2% retracement of the 2012-2015, as noted by Societe Generale.