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28 Mar 2013
Forex: AUD/USD down to 1.0400 after better US GDP Q4
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - From 1.0450 area, the AUD/USD first fell to 1.0416 during the Asian session after the Australian private sector credit report. After a bounce to 1.0440 on the European opening, the cross became heavy again and resumed the downside that was able to extend to the 1.0400 psychological level on the release of US GDP Q4 data.
The third reading of the Q4 GDP data in the US points to economic growth by 1.0%, instead of the expected 0.9%. The annualized figure remained at 0.4% growth. In the week ending at March 24, initial jobless claims rose from 341K to 357K, instead of easing slightly to 340K. Continuing claims eased from 3.077M (revised from 3.053M) to 3.050M, but analysts were expecting 3.043M. The quarterly change of Personal Consumption Expenditures in Q4 was able to beat consensus of an unchanged figure at 1.5% and rose to 1.6%.
In Australia, “growth of private credit outstanding remained subdued at +0.2% m/m and 3.4% y/y in February, no meaningful change to the composition, with housing up another +0.4%, and business and personal broadly flat across two months. Credit appetite remains low despite interest rate reductions”, wrote TD Securities analysts, adding that the ABS job vacancies series plunged –10% q/q in the Feb qtr, following a –7% fall in Nov qtr, lowering the y/y pace to –17.8%, a 11-year low: “hard to square with the relative stability of other employment indicators”.
“Hourly studies are well in the negative territory and as long as session high at 1.0456 stays intact, downside will remain at risk. Initial resistance at 1.0440, hourly 20 day EMA, so far caps”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to an intact overall bullish structure to remain unharmed as long as 200 day MA at 1.0370 holds.
The third reading of the Q4 GDP data in the US points to economic growth by 1.0%, instead of the expected 0.9%. The annualized figure remained at 0.4% growth. In the week ending at March 24, initial jobless claims rose from 341K to 357K, instead of easing slightly to 340K. Continuing claims eased from 3.077M (revised from 3.053M) to 3.050M, but analysts were expecting 3.043M. The quarterly change of Personal Consumption Expenditures in Q4 was able to beat consensus of an unchanged figure at 1.5% and rose to 1.6%.
In Australia, “growth of private credit outstanding remained subdued at +0.2% m/m and 3.4% y/y in February, no meaningful change to the composition, with housing up another +0.4%, and business and personal broadly flat across two months. Credit appetite remains low despite interest rate reductions”, wrote TD Securities analysts, adding that the ABS job vacancies series plunged –10% q/q in the Feb qtr, following a –7% fall in Nov qtr, lowering the y/y pace to –17.8%, a 11-year low: “hard to square with the relative stability of other employment indicators”.
“Hourly studies are well in the negative territory and as long as session high at 1.0456 stays intact, downside will remain at risk. Initial resistance at 1.0440, hourly 20 day EMA, so far caps”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to an intact overall bullish structure to remain unharmed as long as 200 day MA at 1.0370 holds.