US: Focus to remain on CPI data this week - Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that normally the week after payrolls is a little quiet but because the first Friday of the month (ie: payrolls day) was relatively late it means we move into US CPI week very quickly rather than having a week in between payroll and the inflation report.

Key Quotes

“There’s not much point dissecting the consensus for core US CPI this month as the forecast has been 0.2% mom for 29 months now and this month is no different. Over this period 16 months have indeed been at this level but since the start of 2017 only 5 out of 14 have been in line with this forecast. Of the 9 misses, 7 have been below expectations.”

“Outside of US inflation on Wednesday we also have the latest FOMC minutes on the same day, US earnings season starting (with three big banks on Friday the highlight), and of some intrigue we have Facebook’s Zuckerberg’s testimony to a Senate panel on Wednesday. This could impact tech and with it the rest of the market.”

“Elsewhere in the US, the Congressional Budget Office will release the latest US budget deficit projections this week which would likely determine the potential supply of treasuries over the coming months.”