Back
28 Mar 2014
USD/CAD rebounds off weekly lows
USD/CAD is up 0.17% on the day at 1.1049, having previously posted a daily high at 1.1053 and a low at 1.0998.
Stephen Gallo, European Head of Currency Strategy at BMO Capital Markets comments, “The fact that USD/CAD is flashing some important bearish signals cannot be ignored."
He continues to add that, "These include the bearish fractal (daily) earlier in the week, the break of trendline support (from the Feb 19th low) and the 12-26 MACD. For those reasons, the 1.105-1.109 range should now provide some very good resistance over the near-term, and that resistance area may extend straight through to ADP and NFPs next week. A surprise easing from the ECB next week may also prevent USDCAD topside somewhat, by weighing on EUR/CAD.” He adds, “At this stage, there doesn’t really seem to be a logical reason for a move below 1.100 support, especially after 5 successive days of lower USD/CAD closes.”
USD/CAD Technicals
The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. Currently RSI is at 76.52, up from the last hourly print at 56.25, with ADX at 38.72, up from its previous close at 35.84. Meanwhile, daily RSI is in neutral territory at 43.27. A declining 200 SMA on the hourly USD/CAD chart is currently at 1.1070, down from 1.1159 at the previous close. Moving with a downward trend, the exponential average closing price is 1.1118.
The hourly USD/CAD chart is showing the 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 54 pips and shrinking, while the ATR (14) is currently at 10 pips. On a daily chart, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 268 pips.
The average movement for the current hour has been for 10 pips per hour, over the last four weeks. 13:00-14:00 GMT was the most volatile hour of the day, judging by the average hourly movement of 42 pips over the past four weeks.
USD/CAD Key Levels
Current price is 1.1049, with resistance ahead at 1.1051 (Daily Classic PP), 1.1053 (Daily High), 1.1071 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.1088 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.1108 (Yesterday's High). To the downside we see next support at 1.1031 (Weekly Low), 1.1030 (Daily Open), 1.1030 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.1013 (Yesterday's Low) and 1.0998 (Daily Low).
Stephen Gallo, European Head of Currency Strategy at BMO Capital Markets comments, “The fact that USD/CAD is flashing some important bearish signals cannot be ignored."
He continues to add that, "These include the bearish fractal (daily) earlier in the week, the break of trendline support (from the Feb 19th low) and the 12-26 MACD. For those reasons, the 1.105-1.109 range should now provide some very good resistance over the near-term, and that resistance area may extend straight through to ADP and NFPs next week. A surprise easing from the ECB next week may also prevent USDCAD topside somewhat, by weighing on EUR/CAD.” He adds, “At this stage, there doesn’t really seem to be a logical reason for a move below 1.100 support, especially after 5 successive days of lower USD/CAD closes.”
USD/CAD Technicals
The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. Currently RSI is at 76.52, up from the last hourly print at 56.25, with ADX at 38.72, up from its previous close at 35.84. Meanwhile, daily RSI is in neutral territory at 43.27. A declining 200 SMA on the hourly USD/CAD chart is currently at 1.1070, down from 1.1159 at the previous close. Moving with a downward trend, the exponential average closing price is 1.1118.
The hourly USD/CAD chart is showing the 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 54 pips and shrinking, while the ATR (14) is currently at 10 pips. On a daily chart, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 268 pips.
The average movement for the current hour has been for 10 pips per hour, over the last four weeks. 13:00-14:00 GMT was the most volatile hour of the day, judging by the average hourly movement of 42 pips over the past four weeks.
USD/CAD Key Levels
Current price is 1.1049, with resistance ahead at 1.1051 (Daily Classic PP), 1.1053 (Daily High), 1.1071 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.1088 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.1108 (Yesterday's High). To the downside we see next support at 1.1031 (Weekly Low), 1.1030 (Daily Open), 1.1030 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.1013 (Yesterday's Low) and 1.0998 (Daily Low).