USD/CNY: More hawkish Fed the trigger for a turn higher – Danske Bank

There has been a clear and important shift in US monetary policy with the Fed rhetoric turning increasingly hawkish. The shift has triggered a rebound in the USD. Subsequently, economists at Danske Bank forecast a little stronger USD/CNY over the coming months.

EUR/CNY seen at 7.70 on a 12-month view

“The shift in Fed rhetoric in our view marks the turning point for the USD and we see the turnaround in USD/CNY materializing over the next 6-12 months.” 

“We have lifted the 1M and 3M forecast slightly to 6.45 (from 6.40) and 6.50 (from 6.45) but still see the cross at 6.60 and 6.70 on 6M and 12M, respectively.”

“We look for EUR/CNY to stay around 7.70 on 12M but with some downside risk. The main risk is USD/CNY rising stronger than we forecast and EUR/CNY falling more.”