AUD and NZD to enjoy considerable gains in the months ahead – HSBC

The New Zealand dollar has jumped against the Australian dollar after a more hawkish-than-expected Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. The RBNZ will end QE this month, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start to taper QE from September. Support for the AUD and NZD could also come from risk sentiment and commodities, in the view of economists at HSBC.

Support for AUD and NZD to come from risk sentiment and commodities

“Our economists expect the first rate hike in New Zealand to come in 3Q21, and we believe there is still room for the NZD to capitalise over the near-term.”

“In our economists’ view, the RBA’s QE adjustment is a hat-tip to the better recent economic data but the key is the still dovish 2024 cash rate guidance.”

“Other likely key drivers for both AUD and NZD look favourable in the months ahead. With risk sentiment likely to remain positive on the back of an ongoing, albeit plateauing, global recovery, we think the AUD and NZD have room to gain.”

“Further support could also come through the upswing in commodity prices this year. As such, we remain bullish on the AUD and NZD in the months ahead.”